Tennis Betting Guide
Betting on tennis tournaments
About tournament levels
When it comes to professional tennis tournaments you can place outright bets on, they vary in terms of their levels of importance. For instance, any player participating in a Grand Slam event would try his level best, and give his 100% to go as far as possible. Hence you can back any player safely, knowing that he’s going to give it his all. Similarly, you can make the same kind of assumption when these players are participating in the Masters events, as these help them improve their world ranking points. However, on the other hand, you may need to tread slightly more carefully in case of lesser-known events. For instance, any top 5 player who participates in a tournament couple of weeks prior to the Wimbledon, would be heavily favoured to take the title. But if he faces some minor injury, let’s say in the second round, leading to an early exit, you’d have to ponder if he’ll go all out to win that event, or will he even continue playing, considering Wimbledon would be only two weeks away?
Form of the players
An excellent indicator for tournament betting is the present form of a player, especially on a particular surface, and whether he has a liking for it or not. To give you an example, we all know that Rafael Nadal plays extremely well on clay and hence is always among the top favourites to win the French Open.
A draw is made before the start of any tennis tournament, usually one week before it (slightly earlier in Grand Slam events). Draw is of extreme importance for anyone interested in tennis betting. All tournament draws are easily decipherable, so you can readily use your knowledge of the game to create your ideal strategy. You must figure if a particular quarter of the draw is a potential minefield, or if your favoured player will have a particularly easy week in a given tournament? You need to take all such facts into consideration before placing your bets.
Perhaps, you wish to back a certain player in a lesser-known tournament, but now that he’s going to face a top 5 player in a potential semifinal, you may need to consider if that top 5 player will even be in the tournament at that point of time or not?
Betting on professional tennis tournaments - The mathematics involved
A rather advanced method of betting on tennis tournaments is by plotting a mathematical route (applicable to all bracketed events in all sports). You must take a good look at your favourite player and read his actual chances at every stage of the draw. For instance, looking at Rafael Nadal’s possible performance at the upcoming French Open, you may work out his chances in each successive round as 99%, 98%, 97%, 98%, 86% (in the quarter-finals), 85% (in the semifinals) and 66% (in the final). Thereafter, multiplying all those probabilities - 0.99 x 0.98 x 0.97 x 0.98 x 0.86 x 0.85 x 0.66, you can get his actual chances of winning that edition of the French Open, which in this case would be 0.44 or 44%. This can then be converted into decimal odds of 2.26, or fractional odds of 5/4. And now when you’ve figured these odds, you must see what odds are the bookmakers offering and then bet accordingly.
Obtaining the best betting value
The last important point we’d like to emphasise on, when making outright tennis tournament bets, is ensuring that you get ample value in your bets. So, never hesitate from shopping around and ensuring that you receive the best possible odds. Whatever you do, never back a tennis player, just because your gut feeling says that he will go on to win the tournament. Only and only back him, if you think that he’s got some real potential of outdoing his opponents and you’re getting good odds on that possibility.
Tennis match betting
You can bet on individual tennis matches in several different ways, including on the obvious possibility of who’ll win the match. Some of the other popular individual tennis match bets are number of games in the match, set betting, game betting, set bets on correct score or even bets that involve predicting the number of points. Quite obviously, the randomness may vary depending on the length or shortness of the format, for instance, predicting the outcome of an entire match may be much easier compared to predicting individual games or points.
World ranking of players
The world ranking of a player is the most important piece of information you can use while placing such bets. However, please make note that you must use it only in the form of a guide. These world rankings are derived from the tournament points earned by players over the past 12 months’ time period. However, these points may not be the actual representation players’ actual potentials, especially for a player who’d been suffering from some prolonged injury, but has recovered lately.
This is the second most important information you must pay heed to when determining a players potential and his chances of winning the tournament. Certain players are specialists on certain surfaces. For instance, while Roger Federer is extremely good on grass, Rafael Nadal is almost unbeatable on clay.
Current form of the player
The third most important ingredient you must use while placing individual match bets is the current form of the player. How well has he been playing in weeks leading up to the tournament? How did he fare in his match yesterday? Did he just breeze through, or ended up serving 20 double faults? You may find it hard to quantify a player’s form, if he hasn’t had any action in the past one month. However, any player who has been actively playing other tournaments, leading up to the event, would have plenty of info that can be incorporated in your calculations.
Other important factors
Some other important factors you can use are – head to head performance. While on paper, you may think one player may definitely beat the other, when you dig deeper you may find that he was beaten 7/8 times in his past battles with that opponent. Perhaps his opponent’s style just doesn’t suit this player.
There are several different ways and you can bet on tennis games. While some are safer, others may be extremely risky. Points based plan is a particular staking method that is highly encouraged by all seasoned tennis punters. It involves allocating more number of points to a player you’re certain about winning the tournament/match. So, a maximum bet based on this system may be a 10 points bet, going as low as 1 point for less certain bets. Every such point corresponds to a percentage of your bankroll. So, if your total bankroll is £ 1000, 5 points would be worth £ 50.
How this points system helps is that it ensures that you bet in a disciplined manner, and your bankroll sustains downswings every now and then.